德意志银行2010年中国石油化工行业研究报告.doc 40页

'AsiaChinaEnergyOil&Gas1July2010ChinaPetroleumTradeOilandproductflowsDavidHurd,CFAResearchAnalyst(+852)22036242david.hurd@db.comChina’sApparentDemandforCrude(Figures1-10):In2009,China"sapparentdemandforoilgrew6.3%(+453kb/d)to7.65mmb/dfrom7.20mmb/din2008(ChinaBureauofStatistics-CEIC).For2010,weestimateChina"sdemandforoilwillgrow7.3%(+550kb/d)to8.2mmb/d.DBChinaeconomist,MAJunisforecasting9%GDPgrowth2010.Figure20inthisreportshowsthatChina"sLTelasticityofoildemandtoGDPshouldbe0.68x.LookingatFigure1,China"soildemandgrowth(2006-09)seemstohavestabilizedvs.previousyears(1995-2005).Thisisagoodthingforglobaloilmarkets.MightChina’soildemandturnnegative2H10?-YES-Wewereaskedtheabovequestionbyacustomerafewmonthsback.ThequestionwasinreferencetoourviewthatChina’syear-on-yeardemandgrowthforcrude2010Ewouldslowdramatically2H10vs.1H10.Wehaveinsertedafewmoretables(Figures7-10)inthisreportthatanalyzetheseasonalityofChina’soildemandbylookingatsuchthingsasdispersion,frequencyandgrowthreversalsmonthbymonth,yearbyyear.Wewillextendthisanalysistoindividualproductsoverthecomingmonths.Theprincipal“Chinaoildemand”takeawaypointsasdepictedinFigures7-10are1)monthlyoildemandlowsareconsistentlyseen1Q;2)monthlyoildemandhighsarespreadoutalmostequally1Hand2Hacrossthefullyear;3)cumulativeyear-on-yearoildemandrarelyturnsnegative;4)monthlyyear-on-yearoildemandfrequentlyturnsnegative.MightChina’smonthly,year-on-year,oildemandgrowthturnnegative2H10?Yes.WesuspectthatChina’smonthly,year-on-yeardemandgrowthforoilcouldturnnegativeinJuly,possiblyAugust,OctoberandDecember.(Figure10)MightChina’scumulative,year-on-yearoildemandgrowthturnnegative2H10?No.Weareforecastingfullyearoildemandgrowthof7.2%(+550kbpd)for2010vs.2009.Since2001,wehaveseenChina’scumulativey-on-yoildemandturnnegativetwice(Jan.2005andJan–June2009)butonlyforveryshortperiodsoftimeandneverbyyear-end.(Figure10)China’spetroleumtradefigures(Figures14-20)In2008,Chinaexported17.4mmtonsofoilproducts(+11.4%).In2009,Chinaexported25.7mmtonsofoilproducts(+48%).Forthefirstfivemonthsof2010,Chinaexported12.42mmtonsofoilproducts(+50.6%).SNPrecentlycommentedthattheirexportsofrefinedoilproductswoulddouble2010Evs.2009.Inanarticledated28May2010,publishedbyHellenicShippingNewsandsourcedfromBloomberg,Mr.FUBin,DeputyGMofPetroChina,suggestedthat“theoversupply(inChina’soilprocessingcapacity)mayincreaseto80mmmetrictonsby2015”http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=103435&Itemid=79Wethinkthiscan’tbegoodforAsianrefiningmargins(Figure53).ThesurgeinChina’syear-to-date2010domesticoilproduction(+5.9%)isspectacularrelativetothenegativeproductiongrowth(-0.2%)seenin2009(Figures11-12).IndustryUpdateToppicksSinopec(0386.HK),HKD6.35BuyCompaniesfeaturedSinopec(0386.HK),HKD6.35Buy2009A2010E2011EP/E(x)7.37.66.5EV/EBITDA(x)4.94.84.2Price/book(x)1.41.11.0PetroChina(0857.HK),HKD8.77Hold2009A2010E2011EP/E(x)12.512.29.2EV/EBITDA(x)6.46.45.3Price/book(x)1.81.51.4CNOOCLtd(0883.HK),HKD13.38Hold2009A2010E2011EP/E(x)12.613.310.0EV/EBITDA(x)6.87.66.0Price/book(x)2.72.62.2GlobalMarketsResearchCompany DeutscheBankAG/HongKongAllpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicated.PricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompanies.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MICA(P)007/05/2010 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeChina’sApparentDemandFigure1:ChinaMarginalOilDemand0.90Changefromprioryr(mmbbl/d)0.800.700.600.500.400.300.200.100.00-0.10-0.2010yravg.change(1999-2009)Source:CEIC,DBAssumptionsfor2010eChinaApparentDemandDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage3 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure2:China"scrudeandproductapparentdemand(2001-YTD2010)CrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaMillionTons(P+I-E)(P+I-E)(P+I-E)(P+I-E)(P+I-E)(P+I-E)(P+I-E)FY01217.5135.6274.0736.438.2010.60n.aFY02232.5037.1076.0334.308.6515.8017.43FY03253.4440.3483.8943.058.5619.6119.50FY04291.9647.09103.7749.6710.6221.0219.76FY05299.8748.03109.0446.0510.4821.9923.13FY06322.3152.38116.2546.6911.7022.6528.43FY07346.0555.90124.8643.9212.2422.9034.39Jan-0829.665.0211.232.801.111.822.97Feb-0829.174.589.473.060.971.572.64Mar-0832.905.2211.493.471.091.893.00Apr-0829.424.8311.003.461.151.552.99May-0832.234.9811.483.931.001.762.92Jun-0829.925.3112.522.801.021.792.63Jul-0829.705.8612.762.991.001.752.91Aug-0831.285.6012.772.271.151.662.87Sep-0830.025.2011.632.421.091.652.66Oct-0832.215.2411.752.161.211.732.92Nov-0829.055.4210.902.570.871.622.61Dec-0829.665.5110.043.601.031.882.57FY08365.2362.77137.0235.5312.6920.6833.71Jan-0928.325.059.612.670.981.862.81Feb-0925.445.059.493.331.201.582.72Mar-0931.696.1710.613.141.151.842.88Apr-0931.405.4510.313.431.071.923.02May-0932.655.9811.613.431.292.002.73Jun-0932.025.4111.823.251.131.822.53Jul-0935.346.1012.643.171.421.753.03Aug-0934.245.4812.372.201.421.633.12Sep-0932.535.2712.532.501.401.683.62Oct-0935.235.7712.311.971.451.863.62Nov-0932.375.8412.122.021.431.723.48Dec-0936.975.5012.812.511.021.913.71FY09388.1967.07138.2333.6114.9621.5737.26Jan-1033.855.6212.312.071.291.633.37Feb-1033.405.4811.502.791.421.583.22Mar-1037.705.7012.433.211.072.223.36Apr-1037.245.4212.243.331.431.763.73May-1034.805.9812.853.051.441.873.53YTD10176.9828.2061.3314.456.669.0617.22Notes:DataforCrude,Gasoline,Diesel&FuelOilprovidedbyCEICreportedbyChina’sNationalBureauofStatistics(NBS)andbyReutersreportedbyCustomsGeneralAdministrationPeople’sRepublicofChina"ApparentDemand"=Production+Imports–ExportsProductionnumbersforCrude,Gasoline,Diesel&FuelOilarereportedbyNBSwitha1-monthdelay.ImportandExportnumbersforCrude,Gasoline,Diesel&FOarereportedbyNBSwitha2-monthdelay.DataforKeroseneprovidedbyChinaPetroleum&ChemicalAssociation(monthlypublication)witha2-monthdelay.CrudeImportnumbersaredivulgedbyChinaCustomswitha1-monthdelay.Thisnumberistypicallyreportedbythenewswires.Forreasonsofconsistency,weprefertousetheNBSpublishedimportnumbersEthyleneproductiondividedby0.30isconsideredforarrivingatNaphthaproductionestimate.Source:CEICreporteddataprovidedbyChina"sNationalBureauofStatistics,ReutersreporteddataprovidedbyCustomsGeneralAdministrationPeople’sRepublicofChina,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage3 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure3:China"sapparentdemandgrowthcumulative(y-o-y)(%)CrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaFY01-2.0%-13.9%4.9%75.8%-6.2%n.a.n.a.FY026.9%4.2%2.6%-5.9%5.5%49.0%n.a.FY039.0%9.4%10.4%25.5%-1.1%24.1%11.9%FY0415.2%16.7%23.7%14.0%24.0%7.2%1.3%FY052.7%2.0%5.1%-6.2%-1.3%4.6%17.1%FY067.5%9.1%6.6%1.4%11.6%3.0%22.9%FY077.4%6.7%7.4%-5.9%4.6%1.1%21.0%Jan-080.6%3.0%12.0%-27.7%10.3%-21.0%-3.7%Feb-085.2%8.2%8.0%-15.0%5.2%-17.0%-4.4%Mar-087.7%12.0%9.5%-10.3%7.4%-11.5%-3.3%Apr-085.5%12.2%9.4%-13.6%10.1%-11.5%-0.7%May-087.0%11.0%9.4%-11.7%5.4%-11.6%-1.6%Jun-086.0%12.0%10.7%-16.8%6.4%-10.0%-2.7%Jul-084.8%13.6%12.4%-20.5%4.2%-8.7%-1.4%Aug-084.9%14.0%13.8%-22.9%5.3%-8.3%-0.7%Sep-084.9%13.8%13.9%-23.0%5.0%-9.6%-1.2%Oct-085.9%13.2%13.7%-23.3%4.9%-9.8%-0.8%Nov-085.5%13.0%12.6%-22.4%2.7%-10.2%-1.3%Dec-085.5%12.3%9.7%-19.1%3.7%-9.7%-2.0%FY085.5%12.3%9.7%-19.1%3.7%-9.7%-2.0%Jan-09-4.5%0.6%-14.4%-4.4%-11.8%2.2%-5.5%Feb-09-8.6%5.2%-7.8%2.4%4.7%1.4%-1.5%Mar-09-6.9%9.7%-7.7%-2.0%4.9%-0.1%-2.4%Apr-09-3.6%10.5%-7.3%-1.8%1.6%5.3%-1.5%May-09-2.5%12.4%-5.6%-4.4%6.7%7.0%-2.5%Jun-09-1.0%10.6%-5.6%-1.4%7.4%6.1%-2.8%Jul-091.8%9.5%-4.8%-0.4%12.1%5.2%-1.8%Aug-092.8%7.9%-4.6%-0.7%13.7%4.4%-0.5%Sep-093.4%7.2%-3.2%-0.3%15.4%4.1%3.3%Oct-094.0%7.5%-2.4%-1.0%16.0%4.5%5.4%Nov-094.7%7.5%-1.2%-2.6%19.5%4.6%7.7%Dec-096.3%6.9%0.9%-5.4%17.9%4.3%10.5%FY096.3%6.9%0.9%-5.4%17.9%4.3%10.5%Jan-1019.5%11.3%28.1%-22.5%31.8%-12.0%20.0%Feb-1025.1%9.9%24.7%-19.0%24.4%-6.4%19.4%Mar-1022.8%3.3%22.0%-11.7%13.6%3.0%18.5%Apr-1021.7%2.3%21.1%-9.3%18.6%0.0%19.8%May-1018.4%1.8%18.8%-9.6%17.0%-1.5%21.6%YTD1018.4%1.8%18.8%-9.6%17.0%-1.5%21.6%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage3 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure4:China"sapparentdemandgrowth(y-o-y)(%)CrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaFY01-2.0%-13.9%4.9%75.8%-6.2%n.a.n.a.FY026.9%4.2%2.6%-5.9%5.5%49.0%n.a.FY039.0%8.7%10.3%25.5%-1.1%24.1%11.9%FY0415.2%16.7%23.7%14.0%24.0%7.2%1.3%FY052.7%2.0%5.1%-6.2%-1.3%4.6%17.1%FY067.5%9.1%6.6%1.4%11.6%3.0%22.9%FY077.4%6.7%7.4%-5.9%4.6%1.1%21.0%Jan-080.6%3.0%12.0%-27.7%10.3%-21.0%-3.7%Feb-0810.3%14.5%3.6%1.2%-0.2%-11.9%-5.2%Mar-0812.3%19.7%12.4%-1.1%11.9%0.5%-1.3%Apr-08-0.8%12.9%9.2%-21.4%18.4%-11.4%7.7%May-0813.1%6.2%9.1%-4.9%-11.0%-11.8%-5.0%Jun-081.0%17.1%17.1%-38.3%11.9%-2.1%-8.2%Jul-08-1.7%22.5%22.3%-38.3%-8.1%-0.1%6.5%Aug-085.5%16.8%23.4%-40.6%13.0%-5.2%4.3%Sep-084.5%12.1%14.2%-23.7%3.1%-19.0%-5.1%Oct-0815.2%7.8%12.3%-26.8%3.5%-12.0%3.2%Nov-081.5%11.6%1.5%-10.8%-18.0%-13.8%-6.3%Dec-086.4%5.2%-16.6%30.2%17.0%-4.5%-9.8%FY085.5%12.3%9.7%-19.1%3.7%-9.7%-2.0%Jan-09-4.5%0.6%-14.4%-4.4%-11.8%2.2%-5.5%Feb-09-12.8%10.2%0.1%8.7%23.7%0.4%3.0%Mar-09-3.7%18.1%-7.6%-9.6%5.2%-2.7%-4.1%Apr-096.7%12.9%-6.3%-1.0%-7.4%23.9%1.3%May-091.3%20.1%1.1%-12.8%28.7%13.6%-6.7%Jun-097.0%1.9%-5.6%16.1%10.8%1.7%-4.1%Jul-0919.0%4.1%-0.9%6.2%42.2%-0.1%4.0%Aug-099.4%-2.1%-3.1%-3.2%24.0%-1.8%8.6%Sep-098.4%1.4%7.8%3.3%28.8%2.0%35.9%Oct-099.4%10.2%4.7%-9.0%20.3%7.7%23.6%Nov-0911.4%7.8%11.2%-21.5%63.7%6.4%33.4%Dec-0924.7%-0.2%27.6%-30.2%-1.0%1.1%44.3%FY096.3%6.9%0.9%-5.4%17.9%4.3%10.5%Jan-1019.5%11.3%28.1%-22.5%31.8%-12.0%20.0%Feb-1031.3%8.6%21.2%-16.2%18.4%0.2%18.7%Mar-1019.0%-7.6%17.1%2.4%-6.8%20.6%16.8%Apr-1018.6%-0.5%18.7%-2.9%34.1%-8.5%23.4%May-106.6%0.0%10.7%-11.0%11.6%-6.9%29.3%YTD1018.4%1.8%18.8%-9.6%17.0%-1.5%21.6%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGFigure5:China"sapparentdemandgrowthcumulativey-o-y(2010/2008)(%)CrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaJan-1014.1%11.9%9.6%-25.9%16.2%-10.0%13.5%Feb-1014.3%15.6%15.0%-17.0%30.3%-5.1%17.6%Mar-1014.4%13.3%12.6%-13.5%19.2%2.9%15.6%Apr-1017.4%13.1%12.2%-10.9%20.5%5.3%18.0%May-1015.4%14.5%12.2%-13.6%24.9%5.4%18.6%YTD1015.4%14.5%12.2%-13.6%24.9%5.4%18.6%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGFigure6:China"sapparentdemandgrowthy-o-y(2010/2008)(%)CrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaJan-1014.1%11.9%9.6%-25.9%16.2%-10.0%13.5%Feb-1014.5%19.7%21.4%-9.0%46.4%0.5%22.2%Mar-1014.6%9.1%8.2%-7.5%-2.0%17.3%12.0%Apr-1026.5%12.3%11.3%-3.9%24.2%13.4%25.0%May-108.0%20.1%11.9%-22.4%43.7%5.8%20.6%YTD1015.4%14.5%12.2%-13.6%24.9%5.4%18.6%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage3 DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage6Figure7:China"sapparentdemandforcrude(mmTons)YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec1July2010200116.617.617.620.218.119.718.319.617.717.817.217.2Oil&Gas200218.816.718.919.819.420.620.020.819.819.320.118.4200322.219.121.020.919.921.520.620.822.920.920.722.9200424.123.923.223.923.625.224.124.024.623.725.526.2200522.624.126.425.825.525.325.723.825.226.424.224.9ChinaPetroleumTrade200628.425.227.126.528.026.625.826.628.325.528.325.9200729.526.429.329.728.529.630.229.628.727.928.627.9200829.729.232.929.432.229.929.731.330.032.229.129.7200928.325.431.731.432.632.035.334.232.535.232.437.0201033.933.437.737.234.8nananananananaAverage24.523.125.425.325.325.625.525.625.525.425.125.6Median24.124.126.425.825.525.325.724.025.225.525.525.9Dispersion13.112.515.311.614.512.317.114.614.917.415.219.8-AvgAnnual1.51.41.71.31.61.41.91.61.71.91.72.2Frequency:JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec-LowValue261000000000-HighValue102100111002-Reversals121200110111Frequency:1Q2Q3Q4Q-LowValue9000-HighValue3132-Reversals4223Notes:Monthlynumbersinreddenoteannualhighs.Monthlynumbersinbluedenoteannuallows.For"Average"and"Median",rednumbersdenoteaverageandmedianhighs(Jan-Dec)whilebluedenotesaverage&medianlows(Jan-Dec)."Dispersion"isthenominaldifferencebetweenthemonth"sHigh&Lowoverthe2001-2009periodYellowhighlightsrepresentyear-on-yearnegativegrowthreversals.Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBank Page7DeutscheBankAG/HongKongFigure8:China"sapparentdemandforcrude1July2010AverageAnnualAveragePeakTroughAnnualMedianHigh-LowTroughPeakTroughDemandDemandDemandDemandDemandDispersionDemandDemandtoPeakGrowthGrowthGrowthOil&GasYear(mmtons)(mmtons)(mmtons)(mmtons)(mmtons)(%)(%)(%)(%)200118.1317.733.6616.5620.2222.1%ChinaPetroleumTrade200219.3719.554.1716.6620.8325.0%6.9%3.0%0.6%200321.1220.903.8419.0822.9120.1%9.0%10.0%14.5%200424.3324.013.0123.2226.2213.0%15.2%14.4%21.7%200524.9925.243.7422.6126.3616.6%2.7%0.5%-2.6%200626.8626.623.1825.2228.4012.6%7.5%7.7%11.5%200728.8429.013.7926.4430.2314.3%7.4%6.5%4.8%200830.4429.813.7329.1732.9012.8%5.5%8.8%10.3%200932.3532.4511.5325.4436.9745.3%6.3%12.4%-12.8%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBank DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage8Figure9:China"sapparentdemandforcrude(Growthreversals)CumulativeCumulativeCumulativeCumulativeDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-Y1July2010vs.2001(mmtons)(%)(mmtons)(%)vs.2002(mmtons)(%)(mmtons)(%)Oil&GasJan-0218.7613.3%Jan-0322.2218.4%ChinaPetroleumTradeFeb-0216.66-5.1%35.423.8%Feb-0319.0814.5%41.2916.6%Mar-0218.927.3%54.345.0%Mar-0321.0311.1%62.3214.7%Apr-0219.76-2.3%74.103.0%Apr-0320.925.9%83.2412.3%May-0219.356.8%93.453.7%May-0319.892.8%103.1310.4%Jun-0220.564.3%114.013.8%Jun-0321.464.4%124.609.3%Jul-0220.049.6%134.044.7%Jul-0320.622.9%145.228.3%Aug-0220.836.3%154.884.9%Aug-0320.840.0%166.067.2%Sep-0219.7812.0%174.665.6%Sep-0322.9115.8%188.978.2%Oct-0219.328.6%193.975.9%Oct-0320.898.1%209.868.2%Nov-0220.0816.8%214.056.9%Nov-0320.703.1%230.567.7%Dec-0218.447.3%232.506.9%Dec-0322.8824.1%253.449.0%CumulativeCumulativeCumulativeCumulativeDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-Yvs.2003(mmtons)(%)(mmtons)(%)vs.2004(mmtons)(%)(mmtons)(%)Jan-0424.108.5%Jan-0522.61-6.2%Feb-0423.9025.3%48.0016.3%Feb-0524.110.9%46.72-2.7%Mar-0423.2210.4%71.2214.3%Mar-0526.3613.5%73.082.6%Apr-0423.9514.5%95.1714.3%Apr-0525.817.8%98.893.9%May-0423.6418.8%118.8015.2%May-0525.528.0%124.424.7%Jun-0425.1617.2%143.9615.5%Jun-0525.310.6%149.734.0%Jul-0424.0716.7%168.0315.7%Jul-0525.716.8%175.444.4%Aug-0423.9615.0%191.9915.6%Aug-0523.79-0.7%199.233.8%Sep-0424.567.2%216.5514.6%Sep-0525.182.5%224.403.6%Oct-0423.7013.5%240.2614.5%Oct-0526.3611.2%250.764.4%Nov-0425.4823.1%265.7415.3%Nov-0524.22-5.0%274.983.5%Dec-0426.2214.6%291.9615.2%Dec-0524.89-5.1%299.872.7%CumulativeCumulativeCumulativeCumulativeDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-Yvs.2005(mmtons)(%)(mmtons)(%)vs.2006(mmtons)(%)(mmtons)(%)Jan-0628.4025.6%Jan-0729.483.8%Feb-0625.224.6%53.6214.8%Feb-0726.444.8%55.924.3%Mar-0627.143.0%80.7610.5%Mar-0729.297.9%85.215.5%Apr-0626.502.6%107.258.5%Apr-0729.6812.0%114.897.1%May-0628.009.7%135.258.7%May-0728.501.8%143.386.0%Jun-0626.625.2%161.868.1%Jun-0729.6211.3%173.006.9%Jul-0625.780.3%187.657.0%Jul-0730.2317.3%203.238.3%Aug-0626.6311.9%214.277.6%Aug-0729.6511.3%232.888.7%Sep-0628.3312.5%242.618.1%Sep-0728.731.4%261.617.8%Oct-0625.51-3.2%268.116.9%Oct-0727.959.6%289.568.0%Nov-0628.2916.8%296.407.8%Nov-0728.641.2%318.197.4%Dec-0625.904.1%322.317.5%Dec-0727.867.6%346.057.4%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBank Page9DeutscheBankAG/HongKongFigure10:China"sapparentdemandforcrude(2010Forecasts)CumulativeCumulativeCumulativeCumulative1July2010DemandY-on-YDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-Yvs.2007(mmtons)(%)(mmtons)(%)vs.2008(mmtons)(%)(mmtons)(%)Jan-0829.660.6%Jan-0928.32-4.5%Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFeb-0829.1710.3%58.835.2%Feb-0925.44-12.8%53.76-8.6%Mar-0832.9012.3%91.737.7%Mar-0931.69-3.7%85.44-6.9%Apr-0829.42-0.8%121.165.5%Apr-0931.406.7%116.84-3.6%May-0832.2313.1%153.397.0%May-0932.651.3%149.49-2.5%Jun-0829.921.0%183.316.0%Jun-0932.027.0%181.51-1.0%Jul-0829.70-1.7%213.014.8%Jul-0935.3419.0%216.841.8%Aug-0831.285.5%244.294.9%Aug-0934.249.4%251.082.8%Sep-0830.024.5%274.314.9%Sep-0932.538.4%283.613.4%Oct-0832.2115.2%306.525.9%Oct-0935.239.4%318.844.0%Nov-0829.051.5%335.575.5%Nov-0932.3711.4%351.214.7%Dec-0829.666.4%365.235.5%Dec-0936.9724.7%388.196.3%CumulativeCumulativeDemandY-on-YDemandY-on-Yvs.2009(mmtons)(%)(mmtons)(%)Jan-1033.8519.5%Feb-1033.4031.3%67.2525.1%Mar-1037.7019.0%104.9522.8%Apr-1037.2418.6%142.1921.7%May-1034.806.6%176.9818.4%Jun-10E34.166.7%211.1416.3%Jul-10E34.16-3.3%245.2913.1%Aug-10E34.16-0.2%279.4511.3%Sep-10E34.165.0%313.6010.6%Oct-10E34.16-3.1%347.769.1%Nov-10E34.165.5%381.928.7%Dec-10E34.16-7.6%416.077.2%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBank 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeChina’sProductionFigure11:China"scrudeandproductproductiondata(2001-YTD2010)MillionTonsCrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaFY01164.8341.3974.0618.707.8510.60n.a.FY02170.2943.2276.7818.408.2011.8918.10FY03170.4447.8985.2920.018.5613.4520.39FY04174.7352.50101.6620.939.7114.6821.10FY05180.8653.66109.9822.329.8815.9224.56FY06183.7255.83116.3222.329.7917.4329.36FY07186.7060.31123.8923.5811.4719.1835.06Jan-0815.905.0610.411.820.971.613.08Feb-0814.884.669.161.680.861.462.95Mar-0816.005.3311.041.841.101.673.18Apr-0815.414.8310.541.760.991.443.07May-0816.184.8010.821.880.911.593.03Jun-0815.965.1811.591.710.931.672.73Jul-0816.175.4411.821.830.881.552.94Aug-0816.035.3611.911.830.931.592.83Sep-0815.575.2811.311.631.031.592.70Oct-0816.355.4211.781.631.081.612.95Nov-0815.865.7010.891.590.971.492.60Dec-0815.715.7510.151.980.901.502.40FY08190.0262.82131.4121.1811.5518.7634.45Jan-0915.955.269.641.470.901.422.65Feb-0914.325.339.701.390.981.382.58Mar-0915.826.2910.781.521.141.622.74Apr-0915.595.7610.631.641.081.512.86May-0916.036.2911.871.681.171.602.63Jun-0915.715.9411.931.571.301.532.54Jul-0916.146.4012.851.401.351.602.87Aug-0916.326.0012.591.391.401.513.05Sep-0915.725.7812.701.511.441.463.38Oct-0916.256.1212.561.581.361.573.35Nov-0915.676.3312.411.581.301.543.30Dec-0916.076.4813.241.491.371.623.54FY09189.5971.97140.9018.2314.7918.3535.46Jan-1016.876.2212.671.661.351.543.15Feb-1015.115.6911.691.551.291.513.06Mar-1016.926.3012.631.891.392.123.25Apr-1016.266.1212.701.721.461.603.60May-1017.156.5213.301.781.461.673.55YTD1082.3130.8463.008.606.958.4316.61Source:DeutscheBank 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure12:China"scrudeandproductproductiongrowthcumulative(y-o-y)(%)CrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaFY011.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%-7.4%n.a.n.a.FY023.3%4.4%3.7%-1.6%4.4%12.1%n.a.FY030.1%10.8%11.1%8.7%4.4%13.1%12.7%FY042.5%9.6%19.2%4.6%13.4%9.2%3.5%FY053.5%2.2%8.2%6.6%1.7%8.5%16.4%FY061.6%4.1%5.8%0.0%-0.9%9.5%19.5%FY071.6%8.0%6.5%5.7%17.2%10.0%19.4%Jan-08-1.2%-3.0%4.7%-16.2%27.2%-3.3%2.4%Feb-081.2%-1.6%2.5%-9.2%12.8%-1.7%4.2%Mar-081.5%1.1%4.5%-3.1%15.3%0.1%4.4%Apr-081.1%0.7%4.5%-2.1%13.0%-0.3%5.8%May-081.1%-1.0%3.9%-1.5%6.8%-1.8%4.6%Jun-081.1%-0.4%4.7%-4.9%4.2%-0.3%2.6%Jul-081.6%0.6%5.9%-5.2%1.3%-0.3%3.2%Aug-081.5%1.4%7.0%-7.4%-0.9%0.6%2.8%Sep-081.6%2.3%7.5%-9.2%-0.2%0.5%1.6%Oct-081.8%2.9%8.1%-9.8%0.4%0.1%1.1%Nov-081.9%3.9%7.6%-11.2%0.8%-0.8%-0.2%Dec-081.8%4.2%6.1%-10.2%0.6%-2.2%-1.7%FY081.8%4.2%6.1%-10.2%0.6%-2.2%-1.7%Jan-090.3%4.0%-7.4%-19.1%-7.6%-12.1%-14.2%Feb-09-1.7%9.0%-1.2%-18.3%2.5%-8.9%-13.4%Mar-09-1.5%12.2%-1.6%-17.9%3.1%-6.8%-13.6%Apr-09-0.8%13.9%-1.0%-15.2%4.5%-4.0%-12.0%May-09-0.8%17.2%1.3%-14.2%9.1%-3.1%-12.2%Jun-09-1.0%16.8%1.6%-13.3%14.2%-4.0%-11.4%Jul-09-0.9%16.9%2.7%-14.8%19.4%-3.1%-10.1%Aug-09-0.5%16.2%3.1%-15.9%23.2%-3.3%-8.0%Sep-09-0.4%15.5%4.2%-15.0%25.1%-3.9%-4.6%Oct-09-0.4%15.2%4.4%-13.9%25.2%-3.7%-2.8%Nov-09-0.5%14.8%5.3%-12.8%26.0%-3.1%-0.4%Dec-09-0.2%14.6%7.2%-13.9%28.0%-2.2%2.9%FY09-0.2%14.6%7.2%-13.9%28.0%-2.2%2.9%Jan-105.8%18.3%31.4%12.4%50.0%8.6%19.1%Feb-105.6%12.5%26.0%12.0%40.4%9.3%18.9%Mar-106.1%7.8%22.8%16.2%33.5%17.1%18.8%Apr-105.6%7.4%22.0%13.2%34.0%14.2%20.8%May-105.9%6.6%19.7%11.6%31.8%12.0%23.5%YTD105.9%6.6%19.7%11.6%31.8%12.0%23.5%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure13:China"scrudeandproductproductiongrowth(y-o-y)(%)CrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaFY011.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%-7.4%n.a.n.a.FY023.3%4.4%3.7%-1.6%4.4%12.1%n.a.FY030.1%10.8%11.1%8.7%4.4%13.1%12.7%FY042.5%9.6%19.2%4.6%13.4%9.2%3.5%FY053.5%2.2%8.2%6.6%1.7%8.5%16.4%FY061.6%4.1%5.8%0.0%-0.9%9.5%19.5%FY071.6%8.0%6.5%5.7%17.2%10.0%19.4%Jan-08-1.2%-3.0%4.7%-16.2%27.2%-3.3%2.4%Feb-083.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%Mar-082.2%6.6%8.5%11.1%19.6%3.7%4.9%Apr-080.0%-0.8%4.3%0.9%6.7%-1.8%10.1%May-080.8%-7.2%1.8%0.8%-13.5%-6.9%0.1%Jun-081.5%2.4%8.4%-19.2%-7.5%6.8%-7.5%Jul-084.5%6.4%12.7%-7.4%-14.2%-0.2%7.0%Aug-080.8%7.2%14.5%-20.2%-14.2%7.5%0.1%Sep-082.0%10.0%11.4%-22.2%4.7%-0.2%-8.2%Oct-083.4%8.3%13.8%-14.8%6.0%-3.6%-3.0%Nov-083.6%13.0%3.0%-24.2%5.2%-9.3%-12.5%Dec-080.3%7.1%-9.7%0.4%-1.6%-15.8%-18.9%FY081.8%4.2%6.1%-10.2%0.6%-2.2%-1.7%Jan-090.3%4.0%-7.4%-19.1%-7.6%-12.1%-14.2%Feb-09-3.8%14.3%5.8%-17.4%14.0%-5.4%-12.6%Mar-09-1.1%18.1%-2.3%-17.1%4.1%-2.8%-14.0%Apr-091.2%19.2%0.9%-6.8%8.6%5.1%-7.1%May-09-0.9%31.1%9.7%-10.5%29.0%0.6%-13.2%Jun-09-1.6%14.6%2.9%-8.5%40.3%-8.5%-6.9%Jul-09-0.2%17.6%8.8%-23.7%53.3%2.7%-2.2%Aug-091.8%11.8%5.7%-23.6%50.9%-4.9%7.8%Sep-091.0%9.4%12.3%-7.2%39.1%-8.6%25.2%Oct-09-0.6%12.9%6.6%-3.0%25.7%-2.1%13.7%Nov-09-1.2%11.0%14.0%-0.5%34.0%3.7%26.9%Dec-092.3%12.7%30.4%-24.6%52.2%8.0%47.1%FY09-0.2%14.6%7.2%-13.9%28.0%-2.2%2.9%Jan-105.8%18.3%31.4%12.4%50.0%8.6%19.1%Feb-105.5%6.7%20.6%11.6%31.6%9.9%18.6%Mar-107.0%0.1%17.2%24.2%22.3%30.6%18.8%Apr-104.3%6.2%19.5%5.0%35.1%5.6%26.2%May-107.0%3.6%12.0%6.1%24.3%4.1%35.0%YTD105.9%6.6%19.7%11.6%31.8%12.0%23.5%FY10Annualized4.2%2.9%7.3%13.2%12.7%10.3%12.4%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeChina’simportdataDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure14:China"sCrudeandproductimportdata(2001-YTD2010)AggregatedDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeMillionTonsCrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaProductFY0160.230.000.2718.162.13n.a.n.a.20.56FY0269.420.000.5016.502.153.930.2423.32FY0391.130.000.8523.791.926.190.2432.98FY04122.730.02.7530.542.996.370.0542.70FY05127.080.000.5426.013.296.090.3536.28FY06144.920.050.7126.935.625.340.6439.28FY07163.180.231.6224.125.244.051.0736.33Jan-0813.940.030.841.500.570.250.043.23Feb-0814.290.050.331.720.500.160.002.75Mar-0817.300.000.492.000.440.290.043.26Apr-0814.240.140.522.180.570.170.043.61May-0816.200.340.702.860.550.220.044.71Jun-0814.570.280.961.660.570.160.043.67Jul-0813.790.610.971.940.610.260.084.47Aug-0815.650.380.881.210.630.130.093.33Sep-0815.030.120.341.380.490.120.062.51Oct-0816.160.030.081.140.590.200.042.08Nov-0813.400.000.041.390.360.180.092.05Dec-0814.370.010.082.630.600.450.233.99FY08178.941.996.2521.606.482.580.7739.67Jan-0912.820.010.101.580.420.500.222.82Feb-0911.730.010.122.300.670.280.203.57Mar-0916.340.000.232.230.400.290.143.31Apr-0916.170.000.192.500.530.480.173.87May-0917.090.000.132.360.500.460.103.55Jun-0916.610.030.272.420.490.360.103.67Jul-0919.630.000.212.670.580.220.153.83Aug-0918.470.000.181.620.500.180.252.73Sep-0917.200.000.131.600.500.290.362.88Oct-0919.340.000.111.310.470.360.332.58Nov-0917.120.000.101.260.540.240.302.44Dec-0921.260.000.072.160.530.390.333.48FY09203.780.041.8424.006.124.072.6538.73Jan-1017.110.000.101.410.490.170.302.47Feb-1018.510.000.101.810.560.120.252.84Mar-1021.060.000.272.080.360.160.223.10Apr-1021.170.000.102.470.360.220.183.33May-1017.840.000.112.110.540.270.153.18YTD1095.690.000.689.882.310.951.0914.91Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure15:China"scrudeandproductimportgrowthcumulative(y-o-y)AggregatedDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade(%)CrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaProductFY01-14.1%n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.FY0215.3%n.a.81.6%-9.1%0.9%n.a.n.a.n.a.FY0331.3%0.0%69.8%44.1%-10.7%57.3%-1.9%41.4%FY0434.7%0.0%nm28.4%56.1%2.9%-78.6%29.5%FY053.5%0.0%-80.5%-14.8%9.9%-4.3%586.0%-15.0%FY0614.0%nm31.5%3.5%70.9%-12.4%83.4%8.3%FY0712.6%377.9%130.1%-10.5%-6.7%-24.1%66.8%-7.5%Jan-081.8%253.0%631.8%-19.8%8.8%-60.6%-74.8%-2.6%Feb-089.5%190.8%705.9%-6.7%13.8%-58.2%-85.7%2.7%Mar-0814.8%190.5%607.8%-7.0%9.6%-45.4%-80.5%3.5%Apr-089.7%717.2%724.1%-13.4%16.9%-45.7%-77.3%1.0%May-0812.6%1999.6%912.9%-6.6%18.6%-43.0%-75.1%9.5%Jun-0811.0%3071.4%1143.6%-12.9%24.3%-43.4%-71.6%9.0%Jul-088.2%5364.3%1359.4%-17.4%28.0%-37.8%-63.2%10.5%Aug-088.7%2461.4%1468.8%-19.0%30.7%-40.2%-55.5%11.7%Sep-088.8%1189.0%1225.2%-19.1%28.0%-45.3%-53.9%9.1%Oct-0810.6%992.8%907.7%-18.8%27.6%-44.7%-53.5%7.5%Nov-089.5%847.0%666.5%-17.1%21.9%-44.0%-47.0%6.3%Dec-089.7%775.3%285.1%-10.4%23.5%-36.3%-27.7%9.2%FY089.7%775.3%285.1%-10.4%23.5%-36.3%-27.7%9.2%Jan-09-8.0%-69.8%-87.9%5.4%-27.0%97.0%437.5%-12.7%Feb-09-13.0%-80.1%-81.0%20.4%1.6%89.7%924.9%6.8%Mar-09-10.2%-80.1%-72.6%17.0%-1.0%54.1%602.9%5.0%Apr-09-4.5%-92.9%-70.3%16.4%-2.4%79.8%513.5%5.6%May-09-2.4%-97.2%-73.0%6.9%-3.8%84.7%423.2%-2.6%Jun-090.2%-94.7%-72.8%12.4%-5.6%90.2%372.5%-2.1%Jul-095.8%-96.9%-74.0%15.9%-5.5%72.6%292.9%-4.2%Aug-097.4%-97.6%-74.9%17.3%-7.9%70.2%261.9%-5.8%Sep-098.2%-97.7%-74.3%17.2%-7.0%75.7%299.1%-4.2%Oct-099.4%-97.8%-72.9%17.1%-8.4%76.5%337.3%-2.4%Nov-0910.9%-97.8%-71.4%15.2%-4.8%73.0%324.0%-1.2%Dec-0913.9%-97.8%-70.6%11.1%-5.5%57.8%243.1%-2.4%FY0913.9%-97.8%-70.6%11.1%-5.5%57.8%243.1%-2.4%Jan-1033.5%-99.8%-1.0%-10.7%18.1%-66.2%36.9%-12.6%Feb-1045.1%-99.7%-10.9%-16.9%-3.1%-62.9%31.7%-17.1%Mar-1038.6%-99.7%3.2%-13.2%-5.0%-58.0%38.2%-13.4%Apr-1036.4%-99.6%-11.8%-9.8%-12.3%-56.8%30.8%-13.6%May-1029.0%-99.6%-12.8%-9.9%-8.5%-53.0%33.6%-12.9%YTD1029.0%-99.6%-12.8%-9.9%-8.5%-53.0%33.6%-12.9%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure16:China"scrudeandproductimportgrowth(y-o-y)AggregatedDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade(%)CrudeGasolineDieselFOKeroseneLPGNaphthaProductFY01-14.1%n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.FY0215.3%n.a.81.6%-9.1%0.9%n.a.n.a.n.a.FY0331.3%0.0%69.8%44.1%-10.7%57.3%-1.9%41.4%FY0434.7%0.0%224.7%28.4%56.1%2.9%-78.6%29.5%FY053.5%0.0%-80.5%-14.8%9.9%-4.3%586.0%-15.0%FY0614.0%nm31.5%3.5%70.9%-12.4%83.4%8.3%FY0712.6%377.9%130.1%-10.5%-6.7%-24.1%66.8%-7.5%Jan-081.8%253.0%631.8%-19.8%8.8%-60.6%-74.8%-2.6%Feb-0818.1%161.5%989.6%8.8%20.0%-53.6%-100.0%9.7%Mar-0824.8%-100.0%449.5%-7.6%0.7%-2.1%-68.6%4.9%Apr-08-3.9%nm1622.9%-25.7%41.8%-47.3%-66.2%-4.7%May-0824.9%nm3447.3%17.1%25.6%-29.4%-64.5%41.7%Jun-083.2%nm3836.5%-38.4%59.6%-45.6%-35.2%7.0%Jul-08-7.0%nm4564.5%-37.2%51.7%19.5%38.8%17.9%Aug-0811.5%751.9%2557.1%-34.2%49.7%-59.1%15.7%21.9%Sep-0810.0%53.8%266.5%-19.7%7.8%-75.2%-39.2%-13.8%Oct-0828.2%5.0%-46.4%-14.2%24.5%-37.9%-49.6%-12.6%Nov-08-1.5%-100.0%-79.4%11.6%-28.2%-35.8%125.0%-10.2%Dec-0811.6%-60.8%-90.1%115.7%42.9%81.8%496.7%44.7%FY089.7%775.3%285.1%-10.4%23.5%-36.3%-27.7%9.2%Jan-09-8.0%-69.8%-87.9%5.4%-27.0%97.0%437.5%-12.7%Feb-09-17.9%-86.7%-63.3%33.4%34.4%78.2%nm29.7%Mar-09-5.5%0.0%-52.6%11.7%-7.5%2.9%266.8%1.6%Apr-0913.6%-100.0%-62.9%14.9%-6.1%187.8%332.6%7.3%May-095.5%-100.0%-81.4%-17.5%-8.7%103.5%150.7%-24.8%Jun-0914.0%-89.8%-72.4%45.9%-13.9%127.9%168.7%0.1%Jul-0942.3%-100.0%-78.8%37.3%-5.5%-12.8%95.5%-14.3%Aug-0918.0%-100.0%-79.8%34.3%-21.7%41.9%170.2%-18.0%Sep-0914.4%-100.0%-63.0%15.7%1.1%153.1%544.2%14.6%Oct-0919.7%-100.0%31.0%15.5%-20.2%83.8%761.7%24.4%Nov-0927.8%0.0%147.2%-9.4%50.3%34.5%252.4%18.8%Dec-0947.9%100.0%-8.0%-18.0%-12.2%-14.2%47.8%-12.9%FY0913.9%-97.8%-70.6%11.1%-5.5%57.8%243.1%-2.4%Jan-1033.5%-99.8%-1.0%-10.7%18.1%-66.2%36.9%-12.6%Feb-1057.8%-99.6%-19.2%-21.1%-16.3%-57.2%26.0%-20.6%Mar-1028.9%-100.0%16.5%-6.9%-10.1%-45.1%57.2%-6.3%Apr-1030.9%33.3%-47.0%-1.3%-32.7%-54.0%6.5%-14.1%May-104.4%-100.0%-17.7%-10.4%7.0%-40.0%53.8%-10.2%YTD1029.0%-99.6%-12.8%-9.9%-8.5%-53.0%33.6%-12.9%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeChina’sexportdataDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure17:China"sCrudeandproductexportdata(2001-YTD2010)AggregatedDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeMillionTonsCrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaProductFY017.555.770.260.431.79n.a.n.a.n.a.FY027.216.121.260.611.700.020.9110.62FY038.147.542.240.751.920.021.1313.60FY045.495.410.642.392.090.021.4011.95FY058.075.631.482.282.690.031.7813.88FY066.333.510.782.563.710.121.5712.25FY073.834.640.663.784.480.331.7415.63Jan-080.180.060.020.520.430.050.151.24Feb-080.000.130.020.340.390.040.311.23Mar-080.400.100.040.360.440.060.221.22Apr-080.230.150.060.470.400.050.131.26May-080.150.160.040.810.460.050.141.66Jun-080.610.150.040.580.470.050.131.42Jul-080.260.190.030.790.490.060.111.67Aug-080.400.150.020.760.410.050.051.44Sep-080.580.200.030.590.440.060.091.41Oct-080.310.210.110.600.470.070.061.52Nov-080.210.280.030.410.460.050.071.30Dec-080.420.250.201.010.470.060.062.04FY083.732.040.637.255.330.661.5117.42Jan-090.450.220.130.380.340.060.051.18Feb-090.610.290.330.360.450.080.051.57Mar-090.480.120.400.620.390.070.001.61Apr-090.360.310.510.710.540.070.002.14May-090.470.310.390.610.390.060.001.76Jun-090.300.560.380.740.660.080.122.53Jul-090.430.300.420.900.510.070.002.20Aug-090.560.520.400.820.470.060.182.44Sep-090.390.510.290.610.540.070.122.13Oct-090.360.340.360.920.380.070.062.14Nov-090.420.490.390.820.410.070.122.29Dec-090.360.980.501.140.880.100.163.75FY095.194.944.518.625.950.850.8525.72Jan-100.130.600.460.990.550.070.072.75Feb-100.220.210.290.580.430.050.081.64Mar-100.280.590.470.760.690.060.112.68Apr-100.190.700.560.860.380.060.052.61May-100.190.540.560.850.560.080.172.75YTD101.022.642.354.032.600.310.4912.42Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure18:China"scrudeandproductexportgrowthcumulative(y-o-y)AggregatedDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade(%)CrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaProductFY01-27.7%26.8%-53.7%38.7%-10.2%n.an.an.aFY02-4.5%10.2%392.2%41.7%-5.0%n.an.an.aFY0312.9%18.6%77.3%22.1%13.2%0.7%24.2%28.1%FY04-32.6%-28.3%-71.4%220.5%8.6%-7.1%23.5%-12.2%FY0546.9%4.1%130.5%-4.6%28.7%30.0%27.3%16.2%FY06-21.5%-37.8%-47.4%12.1%38.2%381.2%-11.6%-11.8%FY07-39.6%32.4%-14.9%47.6%20.7%165.6%10.5%27.6%Jan-08-40.6%-81.8%-24.2%197.3%53.3%416.7%79.4%33.5%Feb-08-40.6%-81.0%-47.1%108.5%40.4%268.2%129.9%6.1%Mar-0811.2%-82.2%-33.7%70.1%31.4%275.7%114.7%-3.4%Apr-08-25.2%-80.4%-20.8%72.2%26.8%201.5%78.7%-5.7%May-08-40.5%-78.2%-39.3%116.2%26.6%166.4%86.8%2.1%Jun-08-14.1%-76.9%-34.0%113.5%22.3%130.0%67.1%1.2%Jul-08-3.7%-73.8%-37.9%131.2%25.3%139.3%65.7%7.7%Aug-081.6%-71.7%-44.3%135.0%18.6%119.1%42.3%8.0%Sep-0817.4%-68.5%-46.9%99.8%17.9%118.2%21.3%5.3%Oct-088.7%-64.8%-33.1%101.2%20.0%133.4%1.1%7.9%Nov-085.4%-60.2%-31.9%85.9%20.8%113.3%-8.5%6.9%Dec-08-2.5%-56.2%-4.8%91.7%19.0%100.2%-13.0%11.4%FY08-2.5%-56.2%-4.8%91.7%19.0%100.2%-13.0%11.4%Jan-09154.8%242.7%496.3%-27.6%-22.2%22.2%-65.9%-5.2%Feb-09501.1%161.4%1060.6%-14.9%-4.1%55.8%-76.9%11.1%Mar-09167.2%113.3%957.9%10.1%-6.2%43.0%-84.3%17.9%Apr-09136.8%113.5%875.5%21.2%3.5%39.3%-86.8%31.1%May-09149.3%109.4%865.8%6.7%-0.7%31.4%-88.8%24.7%Jun-0971.0%140.7%882.8%10.8%6.5%36.8%-79.3%34.2%Jul-0970.8%124.2%917.8%11.3%6.0%34.0%-81.2%33.7%Aug-0965.1%141.1%986.5%10.6%6.9%31.3%-67.5%38.3%Sep-0944.9%142.6%993.2%9.8%8.6%29.4%-60.6%39.8%Oct-0942.2%131.3%794.8%14.4%5.7%25.3%-58.0%39.9%Nov-0945.8%121.8%825.8%20.0%4.3%25.6%-52.1%42.9%Dec-0938.9%142.8%617.0%19.0%11.5%28.5%-43.5%47.7%FY0938.9%142.8%617.0%19.0%11.5%28.5%-43.5%47.7%Jan-10-71.8%175.7%247.2%161.9%63.4%22.3%42.1%133.8%Feb-10-67.1%59.0%62.6%112.5%24.5%-11.1%43.0%59.9%Mar-10-59.0%122.2%41.7%71.6%41.0%-14.9%147.9%62.3%Apr-10-56.6%122.9%30.1%54.2%18.8%-15.6%195.2%49.0%May-10-57.0%110.5%32.8%50.6%23.5%-6.7%357.9%50.6%YTD10-57.0%110.5%32.8%50.6%23.5%-6.7%357.9%50.6%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure19:China"scrudeandproductexportgrowth(y-o-y)AggregatedDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade(%)CrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaProductFY01-27.7%26.8%-53.7%38.7%-10.2%n.an.an.a.FY02-4.5%10.2%392.2%41.7%-5.0%n.an.an.a.FY0312.9%18.6%77.3%22.1%13.2%0.7%24.2%28.1%FY04-32.6%-28.3%-71.4%220.5%8.6%-7.1%23.5%-12.2%FY0546.9%4.1%130.5%-4.6%28.7%30.0%27.3%16.2%FY06-21.5%-37.8%-47.4%12.1%38.2%381.2%-11.6%-11.8%FY07-39.6%32.4%-14.9%47.6%20.7%165.6%10.5%27.6%Jan-08-40.6%-81.8%-24.2%197.3%53.3%416.7%79.4%33.5%Feb-08nm-80.7%-61.7%43.1%28.2%177.6%166.8%-12.1%Mar-0881.4%-84.0%-12.7%18.1%17.5%287.6%88.2%-18.2%Apr-08-59.2%-75.6%8.6%78.0%14.1%92.3%-6.0%-11.9%May-08-71.6%-67.4%-66.0%370.9%26.1%86.1%149.6%35.5%Jun-08174.9%-70.7%21.4%102.2%6.2%30.9%-5.4%-3.0%Jul-08265.7%-43.0%-54.9%242.6%43.6%201.9%52.0%56.2%Aug-0835.3%-42.1%-75.5%156.2%-15.5%40.0%-68.6%9.9%Sep-08192.9%-17.1%-64.9%-8.3%12.8%112.2%-59.5%-12.2%Oct-08-35.4%20.4%149.5%114.8%41.5%323.6%-78.8%35.3%Nov-08-27.0%27.8%-7.2%-10.9%28.2%10.9%-66.8%-2.6%Dec-08-38.6%68.4%682.7%136.6%3.3%25.0%-61.3%63.5%FY08-41.1%-41.9%-19.0%182.9%43.7%431.9%-3.8%42.2%Jan-09154.8%242.7%496.3%-27.6%-22.2%22.2%-65.9%-5.2%Feb-09nm122.1%1775.8%4.6%16.1%93.9%-82.3%27.5%Mar-0919.0%20.6%859.7%69.8%-10.2%23.6%-100.0%31.6%Apr-0959.3%113.9%761.5%50.1%33.7%28.8%-100.0%69.7%May-09216.8%98.0%833.2%-24.1%-15.9%2.0%-100.0%5.7%Jun-09-50.6%261.9%971.5%28.7%38.9%67.0%-10.4%78.6%Jul-0969.5%58.3%1141.1%13.4%3.0%19.1%-100.0%31.5%Aug-0939.1%247.6%1839.0%7.3%14.1%13.8%274.5%69.0%Sep-09-32.6%150.9%1066.3%3.2%21.9%15.9%32.0%51.7%Oct-0917.4%62.5%236.1%53.9%-18.3%-1.5%1.5%40.8%Nov-09100.0%71.1%1265.0%101.6%-10.1%29.1%57.8%75.9%Dec-09-15.3%295.0%155.5%12.8%86.9%57.1%176.6%83.6%FY0938.9%142.8%617.0%19.0%11.5%28.5%-43.5%47.7%Jan-10-71.8%175.7%247.2%161.9%63.4%22.3%42.1%133.8%Feb-10-63.6%-28.0%-11.8%60.3%-4.6%-35.0%43.9%4.4%Mar-10-40.8%386.6%17.6%22.6%73.9%-22.2%nm66.5%Apr-10-46.1%124.2%10.3%21.0%-29.6%-17.9%nm21.8%May-10-58.9%72.8%42.3%38.2%44.2%38.5%nm56.4%YTD10-57.0%110.5%32.8%50.6%23.5%-6.7%357.9%50.6%YTD10Annualized-52.8%28.1%25.2%12.2%5.0%-10.9%36.8%15.9%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure20:China"sCrudeandproductNETimport/(export)dataAggregatedDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeMillionTonsCrudeGasolineDieselFuelOilKeroseneLPGNaphthaProductFY0152.68(5.77)0.0217.730.34n.a.n.a.12.32FY0262.21(6.12)(0.76)15.890.453.91(0.67)12.70FY0382.99(7.54)(1.39)23.04(0.00)6.16(0.89)19.37FY04117.24(5.41)2.1128.740.916.35(1.35)31.35FY05119.01(5.63)(0.94)23.730.606.07(1.43)22.40FY06138.58(3.46)(0.07)24.371.915.21(0.93)27.03FY07159.35(4.42)0.9620.340.763.72(0.67)20.70Jan-0813.76(0.03)0.820.980.140.21(0.11)1.99Feb-0814.29(0.08)0.311.380.110.12(0.31)1.52Mar-0816.90(0.10)0.451.64(0.00)0.23(0.18)2.03Apr-0814.01(0.01)0.461.700.160.11(0.09)2.35May-0816.050.180.662.050.090.17(0.11)3.05Jun-0813.960.130.931.080.090.11(0.09)2.26Jul-0813.530.420.941.150.120.20(0.03)2.80Aug-0815.250.230.860.450.220.080.051.89Sep-0814.45(0.08)0.310.790.060.06(0.04)1.10Oct-0815.86(0.18)(0.02)0.540.120.12(0.02)0.56Nov-0813.19(0.28)0.010.98(0.10)0.130.010.75Dec-0813.95(0.24)(0.12)1.620.130.390.171.95FY08175.21(0.05)5.6214.361.151.92(0.74)22.25Jan-0912.37(0.21)(0.03)1.200.080.440.161.64Feb-0911.12(0.29)(0.21)1.940.220.200.142.01Mar-0915.87(0.12)(0.17)1.620.010.220.141.70Apr-0915.81(0.31)(0.32)1.79(0.01)0.410.171.73May-0916.62(0.31)(0.26)1.750.120.400.101.79Jun-0916.31(0.53)(0.11)1.68(0.17)0.29(0.01)1.14Jul-0919.20(0.30)(0.22)1.770.070.150.151.63Aug-0917.92(0.52)(0.22)0.810.030.120.070.29Sep-0916.81(0.51)(0.17)0.99(0.04)0.230.240.74Oct-0918.98(0.34)(0.25)0.390.090.290.270.44Nov-0916.70(0.49)(0.29)0.440.130.180.180.15Dec-0920.90(0.98)(0.43)1.02(0.35)0.290.18(0.27)FY09198.60(4.90)(2.67)15.380.183.221.8013.00Jan-1016.98(0.60)(0.36)0.42(0.06)0.100.22(0.29)Feb-1018.29(0.21)(0.19)1.240.130.070.171.20Mar-1020.78(0.59)(0.20)1.32(0.32)0.100.110.42Apr-1020.98(0.70)(0.46)1.61(0.02)0.160.130.72May-1017.65(0.54)(0.45)1.27(0.02)0.20(0.02)0.43YTD10-Import/(Export)94.67(2.64)(1.67)5.85(0.29)0.630.612.49CumulativeYTD-Import/(Export)Apr-09YTD71.78(1.24)(0.99)8.290.421.680.718.87Apr-10YTD94.67(2.64)(1.67)5.85(0.29)0.630.612.49Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeChina’sElectricitydataFigure21:China"spowerproductiondata(2001-YTD2010)KWHbnTotalElectricityThermalHydroNuclearFY011,471.661,176.75277.4317.47FY021,610.431,331.27246.3931.57FY031,838.751,538.98254.9243.37FY042,114.031,750.26302.2650.72FY052,402.161,965.91362.8753.04FY062,749.432,302.04385.8853.44FY073,213.192,705.54433.9262.14Jan-08283.15249.7524.975.31Feb-08233.78202.9822.895.22Mar-08289.78253.5527.965.83Apr-08281.43236.6637.276.02May-08293.38241.5144.455.21Jun-08293.45230.6454.934.93Jul-08319.54251.4960.415.95Aug-08316.06243.3463.776.46Sep-08289.25224.1457.506.05Oct-08264.50211.3944.726.38Nov-08254.02199.4847.275.36Dec-08273.96229.4336.545.68FY083,392.302,774.36522.6768.39Jan-09247.64210.9528.944.05Feb-09244.94203.6630.665.76Mar-09283.36239.9434.844.14Apr-09271.29218.7642.115.49May-09283.89220.1253.815.42Jun-09310.01240.6758.555.23Jul-09334.50260.6364.176.56Aug-09344.32267.1666.806.31Sep-09320.33254.0156.116.26Oct-09312.10256.1343.596.66Nov-09323.41275.9536.475.51Dec-09349.78303.0236.015.45FY093,625.572,951.01552.0566.83Jan-10351.40312.8028.705.80Feb-10269.59229.9026.005.48Mar-10336.95288.3033.926.29Apr-10331.64276.4341.625.44May-10340.47270.9355.875.29YTD101,630.051,378.36186.1128.30Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure22:China"spowerproductiongrowthcumulative(y-o-y)(%)TotalElectricityThermalHydroNuclearFY018.6%5.4%24.7%4.4%FY0211.5%12.8%3.8%43.8%FY0314.2%15.6%3.5%37.4%FY0415.0%13.7%18.6%16.9%FY0513.6%12.3%20.1%4.6%FY0614.5%17.1%6.3%0.8%FY0716.9%17.5%12.4%16.3%Jan-0812.7%11.5%15.3%31.8%Feb-0815.4%14.4%15.0%38.6%Mar-0816.0%15.3%13.2%40.1%Apr-0815.4%14.3%18.1%40.7%May-0815.2%13.5%21.8%41.5%Jun-0813.9%12.1%21.2%30.4%Jul-0813.2%11.3%21.4%23.8%Aug-0812.1%10.0%21.3%19.9%Sep-089.7%7.4%19.2%12.8%Oct-088.4%6.1%17.3%12.4%Nov-086.8%4.1%19.6%10.8%Dec-085.6%2.5%20.5%10.1%FY085.6%2.5%20.5%10.1%Jan-09-12.5%-15.5%15.9%-23.7%Feb-09-4.7%-8.4%24.5%-6.9%Mar-09-3.8%-7.3%24.6%-14.7%Apr-09-3.8%-7.4%20.7%-13.1%May-09-3.6%-7.7%20.8%-9.9%Jun-09-2.0%-5.7%17.2%-7.5%Jul-09-0.9%-4.3%14.7%-4.7%Aug-090.4%-2.5%12.8%-4.4%Sep-091.6%-0.9%10.6%-3.5%Oct-093.1%1.1%9.3%-2.6%Nov-095.0%4.0%6.2%-2.1%Dec-096.9%6.4%5.6%-2.3%FY096.9%6.4%5.6%-2.3%Jan-1041.9%48.3%-0.8%43.2%Feb-1026.1%30.9%-8.2%15.0%Mar-1023.5%27.0%-6.2%26.0%Apr-1023.1%26.8%-4.6%18.4%May-1022.5%26.1%-2.2%13.9%YTD1022.5%26.1%-2.2%13.9%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure23:China"spowerproductiongrowth(y-o-y)(%)TotalElectricityThermalHydroNuclearFY018.6%5.4%24.7%4.4%FY0211.5%12.8%3.8%43.8%FY0314.2%15.6%3.5%37.4%FY0415.0%13.7%18.6%16.9%FY0513.6%12.3%20.1%4.6%FY0614.5%17.1%6.3%0.8%FY0716.9%17.5%12.4%16.3%Jan-0812.7%11.5%15.3%31.8%Feb-0818.8%18.0%14.6%46.2%Mar-0817.2%17.1%10.3%43.1%Apr-0813.7%11.4%29.4%42.3%May-0814.2%10.5%32.2%45.1%Jun-088.1%5.3%19.6%-9.6%Jul-089.6%6.9%22.3%-2.8%Aug-085.7%1.8%20.9%0.8%Sep-08-6.3%-10.6%7.9%-21.8%Oct-08-3.0%-5.0%2.8%9.6%Nov-08-7.8%-15.1%46.3%-3.6%Dec-08-7.0%-12.0%33.4%2.3%FY085.6%2.5%20.5%10.1%Jan-09-12.5%-15.5%15.9%-23.7%Feb-094.8%0.3%33.9%10.3%Mar-09-2.2%-5.4%24.6%-29.0%Apr-09-3.6%-7.6%13.0%-8.8%May-09-3.2%-8.9%21.1%4.0%Jun-095.6%4.3%6.6%6.2%Jul-094.7%3.6%6.2%10.3%Aug-098.9%9.8%4.8%-2.3%Sep-0910.7%13.3%-2.4%3.4%Oct-0918.0%21.2%-2.5%4.3%Nov-0927.3%38.3%-22.8%2.8%Dec-0927.7%32.1%-1.5%-4.0%FY096.9%6.4%5.6%-2.3%Jan-1041.9%48.3%-0.8%43.2%Feb-1010.1%12.9%-15.2%-4.8%Mar-1018.9%20.2%-2.6%51.9%Apr-1022.2%26.4%-1.2%-0.9%May-1019.9%23.1%3.8%-2.4%YTD1022.5%26.1%-2.2%13.9%Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeChina’sEnergyIntensityFigure24:China-OilDemandGrowth/RealGDPGrowthDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeYearCrudetorealGDPGasolinetorealGDPDieseltorealGDPKerosenetorealGDPFuelOiltorealGDPDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade19880.670.901.00(0.55)0.3319891.080.871.640.181.151990(0.22)0.65(0.54)(0.72)(0.18)19910.851.770.821.050.4619920.550.961.160.61(0.17)19930.731.080.460.140.8019940.12(0.51)0.460.47(0.42)19950.680.721.251.210.2519960.990.940.860.85(0.35)19971.240.441.372.440.8519980.080.06(0.02)(0.19)(0.07)19990.830.212.362.990.3620000.770.441.040.66(0.19)20010.210.320.590.280.4420020.930.460.860.36(0.39)20030.950.860.970.030.8920041.551.521.751.501.3220050.380.231.03(0.12)(0.38)20060.640.780.571.000.1220070.570.520.570.35(0.46)20080.581.281.020.39(1.99)20090.720.790.102.05(0.62)MEAN:1988-20090.680.690.880.680.081998-20090.680.620.900.78(0.08)MEDIAN:1988-20090.700.750.920.430.021998-20090.680.490.920.37(0.13)Source:CEICDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure25:Global-OilDemandGrowth/RealGDPGrowthDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeYearUSAJapanGermanyChinaBrazilTurkeySaudiArabiaRussiaDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade1981-2.39-1.38-85.59-0.941.020.914.23na19822.79-2.137.14-0.142.832.03-0.98na1983-0.02-0.10-1.450.190.81-0.30-1.29na19840.361.16-0.180.230.420.66-1.46na1985-0.10-0.841.440.460.35-0.300.12na19861.170.372.270.741.391.32-0.67na19870.640.09-1.930.530.641.45-1.31na19881.021.03-0.020.649.832.920.22na1989-0.050.68-1.531.150.53-26.61-21.19na1990-0.901.140.81-0.250.640.710.78na19918.880.540.920.871.27-0.230.88na19920.642.610.390.61-8.281.07-1.62na19930.32-12.68-1.870.720.311.8335.581.8319940.647.12-0.330.120.810.7817.081.081995-0.100.030.000.751.231.39-25.942.4919960.950.171.720.853.170.691.683.0519970.31-0.90-0.381.382.020.101.11-0.5519980.432.110.050.0791.93-0.392.350.7919990.60-10.36-1.590.8411.010.17-4.450.3220000.24-0.25-0.610.80-0.230.801.51-0.212001-0.16-16.851.210.231.070.683.36-0.1920020.08-6.13-526.640.94-0.510.4213.880.2120030.671.557.820.98-3.640.230.92-0.0120041.12-1.14-0.781.720.110.010.99-0.0120050.090.64-1.750.270.64-0.320.80-0.182006-0.30-1.330.300.480.75-0.351.700.552007-0.07-1.47-3.560.371.320.743.00-0.082008-13.974.644.130.401.106.751.890.60AdjMEAN:1981-20080.310.12-0.300.540.940.650.600.601997-20080.27-0.10-0.790.710.700.191.200.10MEDIAN:1981-20080.310.06-0.100.570.810.680.900.261997-20080.16-1.02-0.500.640.910.201.60-0.01Notes:"AdjMEAN"donotincludeoutliersinred.Sources:IMF-GDPinconstantpricesfrom"WorldEconomic&FinancialSurveys",BPStatisticalReview-OilConsumptionDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure26:China-NewVehicleSales(Commercial+Passenger)Month200520062007200820092010y-o-y%Jan366,053534,057717,180858,753735,8651,664,187126.2%Feb684,6411,015,6581,276,5321,522,5421,563,6252,875,69683.9%Mar1,267,0751,738,3252,123,7402,578,8342,678,8004,610,84772.1%Apr1,803,8072,415,2122,933,5933,501,6083,831,8746,166,01960.9%May2,270,0792,987,8723,647,4824,337,1334,956,8017,604,37753.4%Jun2,787,1203,547,1044,372,3475,182,1806,098,812nanaJul3,220,3184,020,2555,013,6425,822,9137,184,362nanaAug3,639,0404,550,0865,685,2536,477,7878,331,285nanaSep4,134,9995,188,8436,457,9827,229,1389,662,719nanaOct4,586,9035,765,3387,150,2867,908,86010,891,391nanaNov5,136,5066,454,3277,952,3048,589,68812,230,446nanaDec5,757,3917,215,5258,791,5239,336,32613,621,543nanaSource:CEICFigure27:China–Growthintotalvehiclesontheroad(Commercial+Passenger)ImpliedImpliedNewNewMotorTotalMotorScrappageScrappageVehicleYearVehicleSalesVehicles(Vehicles)RateGrowth20002,086,34316,089,10120012,376,88418,020,400445,5852.8%12.0%20023,271,48920,531,700760,1894.2%13.9%20034,390,61923,829,2541,093,0655.3%16.1%20045,071,64826,937,1371,963,7658.2%13.0%20055,766,67931,596,6291,107,1874.1%17.3%20067,215,52536,973,5311,838,6235.8%17.0%20078,791,52843,583,5502,181,5095.9%17.9%20089,380,50250,996,1001,967,9524.5%17.0%200913,621,54362,880,0001,737,6433.4%23.3%Note:CEIC2009dataforTotalMotorVehiclesisactual.CEIC2009dataforNewMotorVehicleSalesisactual.Source:CEIC,DeutscheBankFigure28:OilandProductDemandGrowth/TotalVehicleGrowthCrudeToGasolineToDieselToYearTotalVehiclesTotalVehiclesTotalVehicles2001-0.17-1.160.4120020.500.300.1920030.560.590.6520041.171.281.8220050.160.120.2920060.440.530.3920070.410.370.4120080.320.720.5720090.270.290.04MEAN:0.410.340.53MEDIAN:0.410.370.41Source:ChinaAssociationofAutomobileManufacturers(CAAM)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure29:China-PetroleumConsumedbyEconomicActivity(mmtons)PetroleumAg.andYearConsumedFisheryIndustryConstructionTransportRetailResidentialOther198591.77.5961.712.9211.760.382.265.06198697.38.1864.023.0313.760.502.645.151987103.18.8466.753.9014.770.602.725.561988110.99.2972.343.2315.570.832.776.901989115.89.6974.743.2816.350.922.967.911990114.910.3473.223.2716.830.782.857.581991123.810.6876.313.6118.710.873.2310.431992133.510.7381.553.9620.851.403.6111.461993147.210.6486.172.5724.963.264.2115.411994149.610.8991.822.4223.502.275.2513.411995160.612.0393.492.4328.643.346.8213.901996176.612.24100.202.5829.383.688.7717.521997196.912.56113.042.8537.334.179.3817.581998198.212.95108.712.9342.454.269.8317.051999210.714.22104.297.4750.045.3711.3318.002000224.414.97109.198.3155.095.4512.5618.832001228.415.69108.279.3456.935.6712.9519.542002247.916.74118.0310.9761.645.9314.7719.792003271.316.81128.8612.3170.936.8216.3619.162004317.020.01148.5714.2286.218.1917.7822.022005325.420.73144.6315.0297.089.1617.9420.792006348.822.14149.7216.49109.699.9219.9320.882007365.721.30150.4018.23122.9711.1722.6718.96Source:CEICFigure30:China-PetroleumConsumedbyEconomicActivity(as%Total)PetroleumAg.andYearConsumedFisheryIndustryConstructionTransportRetailResidentialOther1985100%8.3%67.3%3.2%12.8%0.4%2.5%5.5%1986100%8.4%65.8%3.1%14.1%0.5%2.7%5.3%1987100%8.6%64.7%3.8%14.3%0.6%2.6%5.4%1988100%8.4%65.2%2.9%14.0%0.8%2.5%6.2%1989100%8.4%64.5%2.8%14.1%0.8%2.6%6.8%1990100%9.0%63.7%2.8%14.7%0.7%2.5%6.6%1991100%8.6%61.6%2.9%15.1%0.7%2.6%8.4%1992100%8.0%61.1%3.0%15.6%1.0%2.7%8.6%1993100%7.2%58.5%1.7%17.0%2.2%2.9%10.5%1994100%7.3%61.4%1.6%15.7%1.5%3.5%9.0%1995100%7.5%58.2%1.5%17.8%2.1%4.2%8.7%1996100%6.9%56.8%1.5%16.6%2.1%5.0%11.1%1997100%6.4%57.4%1.4%19.0%2.1%4.8%8.9%1998100%6.5%54.9%1.5%21.4%2.1%5.0%8.6%1999100%6.7%49.5%3.5%23.7%2.5%5.4%8.5%2000100%6.7%48.7%3.7%24.6%2.4%5.6%8.4%2001100%6.9%47.4%4.1%24.9%2.5%5.7%8.6%2002100%6.8%47.6%4.4%24.9%2.4%6.0%8.0%2003100%6.2%47.5%4.5%26.1%2.5%6.0%7.1%2004100%6.3%46.9%4.5%27.2%2.6%5.6%6.9%2005100%6.4%44.5%4.6%29.8%2.8%5.5%6.4%2006100%6.3%42.9%4.7%31.5%2.8%5.7%6.0%2007100%5.8%41.1%5.0%33.6%3.1%6.2%5.2%Source:CEICDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure31:China-GrowthofPetroleumConsumedbyEconomicActivity(y-o-y)PetroleumAg.andYearConsumedFisheryIndustryConstructionTransportRetailResidentialOther19866.1%7.8%3.7%3.7%16.9%31.2%17.0%1.7%19876.0%8.0%4.3%28.6%7.3%20.0%3.0%7.9%19887.6%5.1%8.4%-17.3%5.5%38.8%1.5%24.1%19894.4%4.3%3.3%1.6%5.0%10.6%6.9%14.6%1990-0.8%6.6%-2.0%-0.1%3.0%-15.7%-3.8%-4.1%19917.8%3.3%4.2%10.4%11.2%11.6%13.5%37.6%19927.8%0.4%6.9%9.5%11.4%61.3%11.7%9.9%199310.2%-0.8%5.7%-35.0%19.7%133.6%16.6%34.5%19941.6%2.4%6.6%-6.0%-5.8%-30.4%24.8%-12.9%19957.4%10.5%1.8%0.5%21.8%47.0%30.0%3.6%19969.9%1.7%7.2%6.2%2.6%10.2%28.5%26.0%199711.5%2.7%12.8%10.7%27.1%13.2%7.0%0.3%19980.6%3.1%-3.8%2.7%13.7%2.3%4.8%-3.0%19996.3%9.8%-4.1%155.1%17.9%26.1%15.2%5.6%20006.5%5.3%4.7%11.1%10.1%1.5%10.9%4.6%20011.8%4.8%-0.8%12.4%3.3%4.1%3.1%3.8%20028.5%6.7%9.0%17.4%8.3%4.5%14.1%1.3%20039.4%0.4%9.2%12.2%15.1%15.1%10.7%-3.1%200416.9%19.0%15.3%15.6%21.5%20.0%8.7%14.9%20052.6%3.6%-2.7%5.6%12.6%11.8%0.9%-5.6%20067.2%6.8%3.5%9.7%13.0%8.4%11.0%0.4%20074.9%-3.8%0.5%10.6%12.1%12.6%13.8%-9.2%Source:CEICFigure32:China-GDPGrowth,ElectricityGrowthandOilDemandGrowthDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeYearChinaGDPGrowthy-o-y(%)ChinaElectricityConsumptionGrowthy-o-y(%)ChinaApparentOilDemandGrowthy-o-y(%)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade20018.3%8.6%-2.0%20029.1%11.5%6.9%200310.0%14.2%9.0%200410.1%15.0%15.2%200510.4%13.6%2.7%200611.6%14.5%7.5%200713.0%16.9%7.4%20089.6%5.6%5.5%20098.7%6.9%6.3%Source:CEIC,DeutscheBankDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeChinaapparentdemandDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure33:China"scrudeapparentdemand(2002-YTD"10)MillionTons403530252015JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFigure34:China"sgasolineapparentdemand(2002-YTD"10)MillionTons6.56.05.55.04.54.03.53.02.52.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade200220032004200520062007200820092010200220032004200520062007200820092010DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure35:China"sdieselapparentdemand(2002-YTD"10)Figure36:China"sfueloilapparentdemand(2002-YTD"10)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeMillionTonsMillionTonsDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade141312111098765JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec5.55.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.5JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade200220032004200520062007200820092010200220032004200520062007200820092010DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure37:China"skeroseneapparentdemand(2002-YTD"10)MillionTons1.6Figure38:China"sLPGapparentdemand(2002-YTD"10)MillionTons2.4DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade1.41.21.00.80.60.4JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2.22.01.81.61.41.21.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade200220032004200520062007200820092010200220032004200520062007200820092010Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeChinaimportsFigure39:China"scrudeimport(2002-YTD"10)Figure40:China"sdieselimport(2002-YTD"10)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeMillionTons222018161412108642JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec200220032004200520062007200820092010MillionTons1.00.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec200220032004200520062007200820092010DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGFigure41:China"sfueloilimport(2002-YTD"10)Figure42:China"skeroseneimport(2002-YTD"10)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeMillionTonsMillionTonsDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2002200320042005200620072008200920100.800.700.600.500.400.300.200.100.00JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec200220032004200520062007200820092010DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGFigure43:China"sLPGimport(2002-YTD"10)Figure44:China"sNaphthaimport(2002-YTD"10)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeMillionTons0.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMillionTons0.400.350.300.250.200.150.100.050.00JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade200220032004200520062007200820092010200220032004200520062007200820092010DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeChinaexportsFigure45:China"scrudeexport(2002-YTD"10)Figure46:China"sgasolineexport(2002-YTD"10)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeMillionTons1.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec-0.2MillionTons1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade200220032004200520062007200820092010200220032004200520062007200820092010Source:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGFigure47:China"sdieselexport(2002-YTD"10)Figure48:China"sfueloilexport(2002-YTD"10)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeMillionTons0.60MillionTons1.20DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade0.501.00DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade0.400.80DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade0.300.60DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade0.200.40DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade0.100.20DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade0.00JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0.00JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade200220032004200520062007200820092010200220032004200520062007200820092010DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGFigure49:China"skeroseneexport(2002-YTD"10)Figure50:China"sLPGexport(2002-YTD"10)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeMillionTonsThTonsDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade1.000.900.800.700.600.500.400.300.200.100.00JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec100.090.080.070.060.050.040.030.020.010.0-JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade200220032004200520062007200820092010200220032004200520062007200820092010DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeChinaexports,powerproductionFigure51:China"sNaphthaexport(2002-YTD"10)Figure52:China"spowerproduction(2002-YTD"10)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeMillionTonsKWHbnDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade0.350.300.250.200.150.100.050.00-0.05JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec200220032004200520062007200820092010400350300250200150100JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec200220032004200520062007200820092010DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGSource:CEIC,Reuters,DeutscheBankAGDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeFigure53:GlobalRefiningmarginsDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade26.0024.0024.39DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade22.0021.1521.7022.13DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade20.0018.0018.37DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade16.00US$/Barrel14.0014.3214.33DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade12.00DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade10.009.84DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade8.006.004.002.006.752.0220020.893.982.8120041.677.495.384.266.956.0020053.265.664.877.747.626.486.054.362006200720081.364.222009YTD103.004.794.53DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade2003(0.12)-0.42DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade(2.00)(1.43)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade(4.00)(2.51)DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeUSWestCoastComplexNWEComplexSingaporeComplexSingaporeSimpleNote:YTD2010refiningmarginslastupdatedasat23June2010Source:DeutscheBank,BloombergFinanceLPDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeAppendix1ImportantDisclosuresAdditionalinformationavailableuponrequestDisclosurechecklistCompanyTickerRecentprice*DisclosureSinopec0386.HK6.36(HKD)30Jun102,8,17PetroChina0857.HK8.75(HKD)30Jun102,6,7,8CNOOCLtd0883.HK13.34(HKD)30Jun102,8*PricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompanies.ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.RegulatorsDisclosuresmarkedwithanasteriskmayalsoberequiredbyatleastonejurisdictioninadditiontotheUnitedStates.See“ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-USRegulators”andExplanatoryNotes.2.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)makesamarketinsecuritiesissuedbythiscompany.6.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)ownsonepercentormoreofanyclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthiscompanycalculatedundercomputationalmethodsrequiredbyUSlaw.7.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)hasreceivedcompensationfromthiscompanyfortheprovisionofinvestmentbankingorfinancialadvisoryserviceswithinthepastyear.8.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)expectstoreceive,orintendstoseek,compensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromthiscompanyinthenextthreemonths.ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.RegulatorsPleasealsorefertodisclosuresinthe“ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyUSRegulators”andtheExplanatoryNotes.2.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)makesamarketinsecuritiesissuedbythiscompany.6.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)ownsonepercentormoreofanyclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthiscompanycalculatedundercomputationalmethodsrequiredbyUSlaw.7.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)hasreceivedcompensationfromthiscompanyfortheprovisionofinvestmentbankingorfinancialadvisoryserviceswithinthepastyear.17.DeutscheBankandor/itsaffiliate(s)hasasignificantNon-Equityfinancialinterest(thiscanincludeBonds,ConvertibleBonds,CreditDerivativesandTradedLoans)wheretheaggregatenetexposuretothefollowingissuer(s),orissuer(s)group,ismorethan25mEuros.Fordisclosurespertainingtorecommendationsorestimatesmadeonsecuritiesotherthantheprimarysubjectofthisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorvisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttp://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr.AnalystCertificationTheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsoftheundersignedleadanalystaboutthesubjectissuersandthesecuritiesofthoseissuers.Inaddition,theundersignedleadanalysthasnotandwillnotreceiveanycompensationforprovidingaspecificrecommendationorviewinthisreport.DavidHurdDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeHistoricalrecommendationsandtargetprice:Sinopec(0386.HK)(asof6/30/2010)9.00PreviousRecommendationsDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade8.0017.002SecurityPrice6.003565.0044.003.002.00910871112StrongBuyBuyMarketPerformUnderperformNotRatedSuspendedRatingCurrentRecommendationsBuyHoldSellNotRatedSuspendedRating*NewRecommendationStructureasofSeptember9,2002DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade1.000.00Jul08Oct08Jan09Apr09Jul09Oct09Jan10Apr10DateDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade1.1/9/2008:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD9.102.1/10/2008:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD8.503.20/10/2008:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD7.204.19/11/2008:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD6.105.11/12/2008:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD6.607.29/4/2009:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD6.908.1/6/2009:DowngradetoHold,TargetPriceChangeHKD5.709.13/8/2009:NoRecommendation,TargetPriceChangeHKD0.0010.12/10/2009:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD8.8811.10/3/2010:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD9.00DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade6.9/1/2009:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD6.5012.23/4/2010:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD8.19DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeHistoricalrecommendationsandtargetprice:PetroChina(0857.HK)(asof6/30/2010)12.001PreviousRecommendationsStrongBuyDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade10.002SecurityPrice8.005346.004.002.007896BuyMarketPerformUnderperformNotRatedSuspendedRatingCurrentRecommendationsBuyHoldSellNotRatedSuspendedRating*NewRecommendationStructureasofSeptember9,2002DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade0.00Jul08Oct08Jan09Apr09Jul09Oct09Jan10Apr10DateDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade1.1/9/2008:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD12.302.1/10/2008:Buy,TargetPriceChangeHKD11.803.20/10/2008:DowngradetoHold,TargetPriceChangeHKD6.704.19/11/2008:Hold,TargetPriceChangeHKD6.406.28/4/2009:Hold,TargetPriceChangeHKD6.407.13/8/2009:NoRecommendation,TargetPriceChangeHKD0.008.12/10/2009:Hold,TargetPriceChangeHKD9.079.22/4/2010:Hold,TargetPriceChangeHKD9.11DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade5.11/12/2008:Hold,TargetPriceChangeHKD6.20DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeHistoricalrecommendationsandtargetprice:CNOOCLtd(0883.HK)(asof6/30/2010)16.0014.00912.00187SecurityPrice10.002648.00536.004.002.00PreviousRecommendationsStrongBuyBuyMarketPerform10UnderperformNotRatedSuspendedRatingCurrentRecommendationsBuyHoldSellNotRatedSuspendedRating*NewRecommendationStructureasofSeptember9,2002DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade0.00Jul08Oct08Jan09Apr09Jul09Oct09Jan10Apr10DateDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade1.27/7/2008:Hold,TargetPriceChangeHKD12.302.1/10/2008:UpgradetoBuy,TargetPriceChangeHKD11.603.20/10/2008:DowngradetoHold,TargetPriceChangeHKD7.204.11/12/2008:Hold,TargetPriceChangeHKD7.106.29/4/2009:Hold,TargetPriceChangeHKD7.407.19/6/2009:DowngradetoSell,TargetPriceChangeHKD7.308.13/8/2009:NoRecommendation,TargetPriceChangeHKD0.009.7/12/2009:Hold,TargetPriceChangeHKD12.15DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTrade5.20/1/2009:Hold,TargetPriceChangeHKD6.9010.2/2/2010:Hold,TargetPriceChangeHKD13.10EquityratingkeyEquityratingdispersionandbankingrelationshipsDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeBuy:Basedonacurrent12-monthviewoftotalshare-holderreturn(TSR=percentagechangeinsharepricefromcurrentpricetoprojectedtargetpricepluspro-jecteddividendyield),werecommendthatinvestorsbuythestock.Sell:Basedonacurrent12-monthviewoftotalshare-holderreturn,werecommendthatinvestorssellthestock40035030025020015010050060%32%15%11%8%20%DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage251July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeHold:Wetakeaneutralviewonthestock12-monthsoutand,basedonthistimehorizon,donotrecommendeitheraBuyorSell.Notes:1.Newlyissuedresearchrecommendationsandtargetpricesalwayssupersedepreviouslypublishedresearch.2.Ratingsdefinitionspriorto27January,2007were:Buy:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends)of10%ormoreovera12-monthperiodHold:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends)between-10%and10%overa12-monthperiodSell:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends)of-10%orworseovera12-monthperiodBuyHoldSellCompaniesCoveredCos.w/BankingRelationshipAsia-PacificUniverseDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 1July2010Oil&GasChinaPetroleumTradeRegulatoryDisclosures1.ImportantAdditionalConflictDisclosuresAsidefromwithinthisreport,importantconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://gm.db.com/equitiesunderthe"DisclosuresLookup"and"Legal"tabs.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting.2.Short-TermTradeIdeasDeutscheBankequityresearchanalystssometimeshaveshorter-termtradeideas(knownasSOLARideas)thatareconsistentorinconsistentwithDeutscheBank"sexistinglongertermratings.ThesetradeideascanbefoundattheSOLARlinkathttp://gm.db.com.3.Country-SpecificDisclosuresAustralia:Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor"wholesaleclients"withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct.EUcountries:DisclosuresrelatingtoourobligationsunderMiFiDcanbefoundathttp://globalmarkets.db.com/riskdisclosures.Japan:DisclosuresundertheFinancialInstrumentsandExchangeLaw:Companyname-DeutscheSecuritiesInc.Registrationnumber-RegisteredasafinancialinstrumentsdealerbytheHeadoftheKantoLocalFinanceBureau(Kinsho)No.117.Memberofassociations:JSDA,TheFinancialFuturesAssociationofJapan.Commissionsandrisksinvolvedinstocktransactions-forstocktransactions,wechargestockcommissionsandconsumptiontaxbymultiplyingthetransactionamountbythecommissionrateagreedwitheachcustomer.Stocktransactionscanleadtolossesasaresultofsharepricefluctuationsandotherfactors.Transactionsinforeignstockscanleadtoadditionallossesstemmingfromforeignexchangefluctuations.NewZealand:Thisresearchisnotintendedfor,andshouldnotbegivento,"membersofthepublic"withinthemeaningoftheNewZealandSecuritiesMarketAct1988.Russia:Thisinformation,interpretationandopinionssubmittedhereinarenotinthecontextof,anddonotconstitute,anyappraisalorevaluationactivityrequiringalicenseintheRussianFederation.DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage25 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